Mar 22, 2012

Minnesota Vikings’ 2012 Draft Predictions based on Free Agency

The Minnesota Vikings have been unusually quiet this year in free agency. Considering the big moves the Vikings have made in the past three years, it has come as bit of a surprise for many fans, who were expecting the Vikings to pursue at least one or two big name players on the free agent market. However, this approach could turn out to be a rather master move for new GM Rick Spielman in his quest to make the Vikings winners in the near-future.

Minnesota Vikings Free Agent Signings (Mid-March 2012)

To date the Vikings have signed seven free agents who were not with the team last season. They are as follows:

TE John Carlson: Carlson’s signing came as a surprise, but upon further review made an awful lot of sense. With Visanthe Shiancoe having been shown the door, the Vikings needed a young veteran tight end to help along the development of Kyle Rudolph, Mickey Shuler Jr. and Allen Reisner. Carlson’s youth and experience makes him an ideal fit for that need and he gives QBs Christian Ponder and Joe Webb another massive target in the passing game.

FB/HB Lex Hilliard: This was an odd signing. If there was one position the Vikings had no need for depth or replacements, it was runningback. True Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart are rehabbing from serious injuries suffered last season, but Caleb King flashed big time in the pre-season last year and the team thought so highly of the Chargers’ Jordan Todman that they stole him off that team’s practice squad. As for fullback, the Vikings already have two on the roster in Ryan D’Imperio and Matt Asiata. Asiata struggled with injuries and D’Imperio with learning pains last season, but they both also showed flashes of big-time potential. Apparently the Vikings front office either isn’t sold on them, or Jim Kleinsasser’s retirement has scared them more than anyone originally thought.

FB Jerome Felton: Again, a very odd signing. The Vikings tried to acquire Felton early last season and were outbid by Carolina and Indianapolis, respectively. They finally got him, and they now have FOUR fullbacks on the roster… One gets the feeling that Jim Kleinsasser’s retirement has really bothered the Vikings front office.

OL Geoff Schwartz: This signing, in contrast, made a lot of sense. Schwartz is acquainted with Vikings’ offensive line coach Jeff Davidson and has been a solid fill-in player during the years he spent with Davidson in Carolina. With the Vikings’ offensive line in need of new depth due to the departure of Steve Hutchinson and Anthony Herrera, Schwartz adds a piece to either provide that depth or to compete with someone (possibly guard Joe Berger) for a starting spot.

CB Nicholas Taylor: This signing puzzled many when it was announced. Why would the Vikings sign a former college basketball star to their roster? If one analyzes other basketball players who have turned to an NFL career however, this move does not look as crazy any longer. The chances of making a successful find for the NFL among college basketball players are actually rather high. Some great NFL stars have started out as basketball players: Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham to name a couple; even Julius Peppers and Terrell Owens did very well at basketball in college. No one has yet seen a basketball player become a truly successful cornerback, but the Vikings are hoping Taylor begins that trend. If Taylor can turn the leaping abilities every basketball player has into a key skill set in his duties as a cornerback, he might have a chance to do some damage for the Vikings this coming season.

LB Solomon Elimimian: The former CFL star may actually have a chance to crack the starting lineup for the Vikings this year. The Vikings found a good project in another CFL star, WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, last season and are hoping they landed another good project in Elimimian. If Erin Henderson’s current frustration with the Vikings results in his departure for another team, Elimimian’s chances of landing a starting spot alongside Chad Greenway in the Vikings’ linebacker corps skyrockets. Good move? Bad move? That is anybody’s guess at this point. The Vikings did not see Arceneaux finally start producing until late last year so it may be a while before this move’s wisdom or failure becomes known.

QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson: Not a flashy move, but it provides Sage Rosenfels with competition for the third string spot. Bethel-Thompson has a real big arm and has flashed a lot of potential, but injuries are primarily what have killed his opportunities to date. Don’t expect him to make it on the final roster, but if Rosenfels completely implodes or lands on injured reserve in the pre-season, Bethel-Thompson could stick around and watch as Ponder and Webb show what it takes to run a pro-offense.

Minnesota Vikings 2012 Draft – First Round Opportunities (Mid-March 2012)

The seven free agent signings so far should be telling the fans this very important clue. The major part of the Vikings rebuilding process this season is going to be done through the draft. This knowledge and the fact that the Vikings have the No. 3 overall pick in the draft means the Vikings are in a very enviable position for any rebuilding team.

With this in mind, there are two scenarios for the Vikings’ first round options in the upcoming draft. One if the Vikings remain at the No. 3 overall spot and the other if they trade down in the first round.

Remaining at No. 3 Overall: This move is more likely then a lot of fans probably want to admit. With the Redskins already assured of getting Quarterback Robert Griffin III due to their trade with the Rams for the No. 2 overall pick, the Vikings are now left with a choice between the three players who are considered the top tier in the upcoming draft: OT Matt Kalil, CB Morris Claiborne and WR Justin Blackmon. The Vikings will need to evaluate which hole is most desperately in need of filling and that biggest hole is most likely going to turn out to be in the defensive secondary.

People might remember that Leslie Frazier was very impressed with the way CB Cedric Griffin began playing toward the end of the 2011 season. However, Griffin ended up being a salary cap casualty right before free agency started in early March. Knowing that Frazier had wanted a three cornerback tandem in the defensive secondary the last two years made up of Griffin and Chris Cook playing the outside with Antoine Winfield covering the slot, the move to release Griffin really made no sense. Upon evaluating the Vikings’ draft prospects, however, Griffin’s release begins to play out into the following scenario.

Frazier was probably convinced by Spielman that the team was better off getting a younger corner given Griffin’s injury history and age. Frazier was then promised that a first round pick would be spent on a cornerback to give him that three cornerback tandem he wants in order to more effectively run the Tampa-2 defense he and new defensive coordinator Alan Williams are re-implementing. With this having been promised, Frazier gave his nod of approval to Griffin’s departure and began to evaluate who the team should select for their first round cornerback.

Knowing this, a safe prediction can be made that the Vikings, if they remain at that third pick, will select cornerback Morris Claiborne. The Vikings are only one or two pieces away from a very solid 4-3 defense and Claiborne could be that missing piece the team so badly needs. If one thinks back to the great Tampa Bay defenses under Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin, they might recall that the Buccaneers did not have a roster full of defensive stars. They had one star for each section of the defense: Warren Sapp and later Simeon Rice for the defensive line; Derrick Brooks for the linebackers; John Lynch and later Ronde Barber for the secondary. The rest were simply solid players who did their job and worked around the star players. Frazier is basing his defense on that Tampa Bay model and the Vikings have current stars who are ready to take the defense to that next level if they can obtain one star player for their secondary. On the defensive line their current star is Jared Allen with rising ones right behind him in Christian Ballard and Everson Griffen; Chad Greenway is a star for the linebacker corps; Antoine Winfield used to be the star in the secondary, but age has robbed him of the ability to be that any longer. The addition of Claiborne would make him the instant star in the secondary to replace Winfield and so help solidify the Vikings defense. Plus, if Chris Cook can return to playing at the level that he was last season, where he was driving star receivers like Calvin Johnson crazy, the Vikings’ secondary could actually begin to be a feared force. With Claiborne now handling players like Johnson, Cook would be free to take out opponents’ second receivers and that could go a long way towards shutting down opposing offenses and giving the Vikings’ offense more scoring opportunities. The fact that the Chicago Bears acquired wide receiver Brandon Marshall to team with his former quarterback Jay Cutler, thrown in with the additional fact that the Lions and Packers already have scary receiving corps, only reinforces the idea that the Vikings will be picking Claiborne if they remain at the third overall pick. If the Vikings hope to even survive in the NFC North, they will need a solid secondary.

Trading down for two 1st round picks: There is only one scenario which makes any sense for the Vikings do this. Trading the third overall pick for Cleveland’s two first round picks. Why would Cleveland give up that much just to move up one pick? The answer is simple. The Browns are in desperate need of secondary help, just like the Vikings, and they too have set their eyes on cornerback Morris Claiborne.

The way this would likely play out is as follows: The Browns trade their two first round picks at No. 4 and No. 22 to the Vikings for the Vikings’ No. 3 overall pick. The Browns then select Claiborne. The Vikings then adjust. They improve their offensive line by drafting Matt Kalil at No. 4 and then they pick up another good cornerback, most likely Dre Kirkpatrick, at No. 22. Kirkpatrick is considered to be the same kind of talent as Claiborne, but his stock has slipped dramatically after an incident involving possession of marijuana by a guest in Kirkpatrick’s car. However, the Vikings have gambled on players like this before and have had it work out very well (Percy Harvin reportedly tested positive for marijuana in 2009 and has turned out to be a fantastic and responsible player).

This would be the best possible scenario for the Vikings. Kalil would fill a hole on the offensive line that needs to be filled at some point and the Vikings would still fill their gaping hole in the secondary either with Kirkpatrick or one of the other highly-rated cornerbacks in this year’s draft. This would give the Vikings an opportunity to more thoroughly address other holes at wide receiver, nose tackle and safety in the later rounds of the draft. Kirkpatrick can also play safety and if the Vikings do get him at No. 22, then this move makes even more sense. Kirkpatrick would give the Vikings a very flexible defense while Kalil would provide protection for Christian Ponder and Joe Webb at a critical position on the offensive line.

In Closing: There is a long way to go still until the NFL Draft in late April. Many things could change during that time. However, based on the moves the Vikings have made to date, one thing is certain. The Vikings’ roster will be much younger on opening weekend in 2012. General Manager Rick Spielman and Head Coach Leslie Frazier have decided to move past the Brad Childress era and build their own legacy and team. 2012 may not be a winning year for the Vikings, but one thing is for certain. They will be much better then they were in 2011 and will inspire their fans with more hope for the future.

© 2012 New Agora and The Subsidiarity Times. All rights reserved. This material may not be re-published, re-broadcast, re-written or re-distributed without written permission from blog author.

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